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Meizhou Kejia vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
5/10/2018League OneLeague One · Round 10Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Kejia52%
×Draw23%
liaoning hongyun FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.83
liaoning hongyun FC
1.18

Meizhou Kejia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.80
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.25
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
75%
Meizhou Kejia or liaoning hongyun FC
77%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
48%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
29%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
84%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
54%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
28%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
69%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
33%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
68%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.80 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
52%
level
23%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
25%

Meizhou Kejia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs liaoning hongyun FC

Meizhou Kejia and liaoning hongyun FC drew 1-1 in League One on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua).