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liaoning hongyun FC vs Meizhou Kejia — League One 2018

liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
10/26/2019League OneLeague One · Round 29Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC32%
×Draw25%
Meizhou Kejia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

liaoning hongyun FC
1.27
Meizhou Kejia
1.50

Meizhou Kejia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.17
Meizhou Kejia
1.49

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC
1.50
Meizhou Kejia
1.38

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw
57%
liaoning hongyun FC or Meizhou Kejia
75%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
68%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
14%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
72%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
36%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
14%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
78%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
44%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
43%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more
32%
level
25%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
43%

Meizhou Kejia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: liaoning hongyun FC 2–3 Meizhou Kejia

Meizhou Kejia beat liaoning hongyun FC 3-2 in League One on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Tiexi New District Sports Center in Shenyang.