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Meizhou Kejia vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
12/31/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 34Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Meizhou Kejia31%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.37
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.70

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 68 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.48
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.56
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
55%
Meizhou Kejia or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
69%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
14%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
75%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
40%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
16%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
82%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
51%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
41%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.48 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
31%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
45%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meizhou Kejia 1 – 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Meizhou Kejia beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 in Super League on December 31, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.