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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
10/9/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC61%
×Draw21%
Meizhou Kejia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.02
Meizhou Kejia
0.98

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 62 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Meizhou Kejia
0.94

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Meizhou Kejia
2.00

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
82%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Meizhou Kejia
79%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
39%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
37%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
87%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
60%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
33%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
62%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
26%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
78%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
61%
level
21%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
18%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–3 Meizhou Kejia

Meizhou Kejia beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-1 in Super League on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guongzhou.