Meizhou Kejia 2–1 Dalian Aerbin: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dalian Aerbin

7/29/2023

Super League · Round 19Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Meizhou Kejia45%

×Draw24%

Dalian Aerbin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchDalian Aerbin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.33

Meizhou Kejia

1.67

Dalian Aerbin

1.33

Meizhou Kejia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 84 away

1.48

creates per match

1.10

1.56

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.48

Dalian Aerbin

1.10

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.56

Dalian Aerbin

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Dalian Aerbin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

69%

Meizhou Kejia or Dalian Aerbin

76%

Draw or Dalian Aerbin

55%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

24%

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

81%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

50%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

23%

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

74%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

38%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

60%

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.48 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

45%

level

24%

Dalian Aerbin scores more

31%

Meizhou Kejia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff