Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2018

Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
11/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Dalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dalian Aerbin49%
×Draw24%
Meizhou Kejia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Aerbin
1.68
Meizhou Kejia
1.17

Dalian Aerbin creates 44% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.35
Meizhou Kejia
0.94

allows per match

Dalian Aerbin
1.40
Meizhou Kejia
2.00

finishing

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Aerbin ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dalian Aerbin or draw
73%
Dalian Aerbin or Meizhou Kejia
76%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
51%

Winning margin

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
26%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
81%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
50%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
24%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
69%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
33%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
65%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Aerbin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.35 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dalian Aerbin scores more
49%
level
24%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
27%

Dalian Aerbin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalian Aerbin vs Meizhou Kejia

Dalian Aerbin beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 in Super League on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Center in Dalian.