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Meiningen vs Rheindorf Altach II — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Meiningen
Meiningen
FT
3 – 3
Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II
5/21/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 30Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meiningen32%
×Draw21%
Rheindorf Altach II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meiningen
1.71
Rheindorf Altach II
2.12

Rheindorf Altach II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Meiningen
1.80
Rheindorf Altach II
2.56

allows per match

Meiningen
1.67
Rheindorf Altach II
1.63

finishing

Meiningen+0.00on par
Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meiningen ↓

Rheindorf Altach II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Meiningen or draw
53%
Meiningen or Rheindorf Altach II
79%
Draw or Rheindorf Altach II
68%

Winning margin

Meiningen wins by 2+
16%
Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Meiningen 1+ goals
82%
Meiningen 2+ goals
51%
Meiningen 3+ goals
24%
Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals
88%
Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals
62%
Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Meiningen (draw refunded)
40%
Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meiningen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Rheindorf Altach II away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meiningen attack 1.80 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rheindorf Altach II attack 2.56 + Meiningen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Meiningen scores more
32%
level
21%
Rheindorf Altach II scores more
47%

Rheindorf Altach II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rheindorf Altach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Meiningen 3–3 Rheindorf Altach II

Meiningen and Rheindorf Altach II drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.