Meinerzhagen vs Kaan-Marienborn

Meinerzhagen

CANC

13:00

Kaan-Marienborn

4/25/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 34Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Meinerzhagen28%

×Draw22%

Kaan-Marienborn50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeinerzhagenExpected goals in this matchKaan-Marienborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.01

Meinerzhagen

1.45

Kaan-Marienborn

2.01

Kaan-Marienborn creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

2.59

1.44

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Meinerzhagen

1.78

Kaan-Marienborn

2.59

allows per match

Meinerzhagen

1.44

Kaan-Marienborn

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw

50%

Meinerzhagen or Kaan-Marienborn

78%

Draw or Kaan-Marienborn

72%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+

12%

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals

77%

Meinerzhagen 2+ goals

42%

Meinerzhagen 3+ goals

18%

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals

87%

Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals

59%

Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)

36%

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more

28%

level

22%

Kaan-Marienborn scores more

50%

Kaan-Marienborn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff