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Kaan-Marienborn vs Meinerzhagen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
3/6/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn67%
×Draw17%
Meinerzhagen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaan-Marienborn
2.71
Meinerzhagen
1.27

Kaan-Marienborn creates 113% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn
3.21
Meinerzhagen
1.55

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn
1.00
Meinerzhagen
2.20

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par
Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

Meinerzhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw
84%
Kaan-Marienborn or Meinerzhagen
83%
Draw or Meinerzhagen
33%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
46%
Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
93%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
75%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
50%
Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
72%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
36%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
81%
Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.71

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more
67%
level
17%
Meinerzhagen scores more
16%

Kaan-Marienborn at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaan-Marienborn vs Meinerzhagen

Kaan-Marienborn beat Meinerzhagen 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Breitenbachtal in Siegen.