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Meinerzhagen vs FC Gutersloh — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
13:30
FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
11/29/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen33%
×Draw25%
FC Gutersloh42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
1.36
FC Gutersloh
1.55

FC Gutersloh creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
FC Gutersloh
1.67

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
FC Gutersloh
0.94

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

FC Gutersloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
58%
Meinerzhagen or FC Gutersloh
75%
Draw or FC Gutersloh
67%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
15%
FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
74%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
39%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
16%
FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
79%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
46%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
44%
FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

FC Gutersloh away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Gutersloh attack 1.67 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
33%
level
25%
FC Gutersloh scores more
42%

FC Gutersloh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Meinerzhagen host FC Gutersloh

November 29, 2020: Meinerzhagen take on FC Gutersloh in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Meinerzhagen host FC Gutersloh at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.