FC Gutersloh 3–0 Meinerzhagen: Result & Stats

FC Gutersloh

FT

3 – 0

Meinerzhagen

10/10/2021

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Gutersloh56%

×Draw22%

Meinerzhagen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC GuterslohExpected goals in this matchMeinerzhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.22

FC Gutersloh

2.02

Meinerzhagen

1.22

FC Gutersloh creates 66% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

1.83

creates per match

1.55

0.89

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

FC Gutersloh

1.83

Meinerzhagen

1.55

allows per match

FC Gutersloh

0.89

Meinerzhagen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Meinerzhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw

77%

FC Gutersloh or Meinerzhagen

78%

Draw or Meinerzhagen

44%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+

33%

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals

87%

FC Gutersloh 2+ goals

60%

FC Gutersloh 3+ goals

33%

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals

70%

Meinerzhagen 2+ goals

34%

Meinerzhagen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)

71%

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.02

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more

56%

level

22%

Meinerzhagen scores more

23%

FC Gutersloh at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff