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Meinerzhagen vs Ennepetal — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
17:45
Ennepetal
Ennepetal
10/23/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 10Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen51%
×Draw22%
Ennepetal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
1.96
Ennepetal
1.39

Meinerzhagen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Ennepetal
1.33

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Ennepetal
2.14

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Ennepetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
73%
Meinerzhagen or Ennepetal
78%
Draw or Ennepetal
49%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
29%
Ennepetal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
86%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
58%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
31%
Ennepetal 1+ goals
75%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
40%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
65%
Ennepetal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
51%
level
22%
Ennepetal scores more
27%

Meinerzhagen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meinerzhagen face Ennepetal (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Meinerzhagen hosting Ennepetal. Match starts October 23, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Meinerzhagen host Ennepetal at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.