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Ennepetal vs Meinerzhagen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
4/7/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ennepetal43%
×Draw22%
Meinerzhagen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
1.89
Meinerzhagen
1.71

Ennepetal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Meinerzhagen
1.55

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Meinerzhagen
2.20

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Meinerzhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
65%
Ennepetal or Meinerzhagen
78%
Draw or Meinerzhagen
57%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
23%
Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
85%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
56%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
29%
Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
82%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
51%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
55%
Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ennepetal scores more
43%
level
22%
Meinerzhagen scores more
35%

Ennepetal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Ennepetal 0–3 Meinerzhagen

Meinerzhagen beat Ennepetal 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.