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Mégrine vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Mégrine
Mégrine
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
10/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Hammouda Haddad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mégrine46%
×Draw29%
Jendouba Sport24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mégrine
1.24
Jendouba Sport
0.81

Mégrine creates 53% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mégrine
1.38
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Mégrine
0.77
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Mégrine+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mégrine ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mégrine or draw
76%
Mégrine or Jendouba Sport
71%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
54%

Winning margin

Mégrine wins by 2+
21%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mégrine 1+ goals
71%
Mégrine 2+ goals
35%
Mégrine 3+ goals
13%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
56%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
19%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mégrine (draw refunded)
66%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mégrine at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mégrine attack 1.38 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Mégrine defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mégrine scores more
46%
level
29%
Jendouba Sport scores more
24%

Mégrine at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mégrine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mégrine vs Jendouba Sport

Mégrine beat Jendouba Sport 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Hammouda Haddad in Mégrine.