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Jendouba Sport vs Mégrine — Ligue 2 2020

Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mégrine
Mégrine
2/9/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Municipal Salih Al Mirdasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jendouba Sport49%
×Draw26%
Mégrine25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jendouba Sport
1.52
Mégrine
1.02

Jendouba Sport creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 26 away

creates per match

Jendouba Sport
1.50
Mégrine
1.46

allows per match

Jendouba Sport
0.58
Mégrine
1.54

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par
Mégrine+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

Mégrine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw
75%
Jendouba Sport or Mégrine
74%
Draw or Mégrine
51%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
25%
Mégrine wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
78%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
45%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
20%
Mégrine 1+ goals
64%
Mégrine 2+ goals
27%
Mégrine 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
66%
Mégrine (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.58 · 60 matches

Mégrine away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 1.50 + Mégrine defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mégrine attack 1.46 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more
49%
level
26%
Mégrine scores more
25%

Jendouba Sport at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jendouba Sport 3–1 Mégrine

Jendouba Sport beat Mégrine 3-1 in Ligue 2 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Salih Al Mirdasi in Jendouba.