Meerbusch U19 1–5 Schalke 04 U19: Result & Stats

Meerbusch U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Schalke 04 U19

J. Ilunga 57'

M. Tubić 80'

M. Wallentowitz 67'

M. Ayhan 28'

Z. Amoussou-Tchibara 24'

J. Zgorecki 6'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1918%

×Draw18%

Schalke 04 U1964%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.46

Meerbusch U19

1.23

Schalke 04 U19

2.46

Schalke 04 U19 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

1.21

creates per match

2.00

2.93

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Schalke 04 U19

2.00

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

36%

Meerbusch U19 or Schalke 04 U19

82%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

82%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

7%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

71%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

35%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

13%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

91%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

70%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

18%

level

18%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

64%

Schalke 04 U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Zgorecki

24'

Z. Amoussou-Tchibara

28'

M. Ayhan

30'

J. Estrada← J. Gaudian

46'

Y. El Kandri← V. Habarov

46'

Y. Zeller← D. Gyamfi

57'

J. Ilunga

63'

O. Turay← E. Gashi

65'

M. Wallentowitz← Y. Numbisie

67'

75'

79'

80'

83'

83'

C. Bettoni Katunda← M. Khadr

83'

J. N'Diaye← B. Weber

83'

T. Pfeiffer← L. Vozar

84'

C. Zaunbrecher← L. Lahi

Meerbusch

Schalke

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Granata

30'▲J. Estrada←▼J. Gaudian

46'▲Y. El Kandri←▼V. Habarov

46'▲Y. Zeller←▼D. Gyamfi

79'▲T. Behle←▼J. Ilunga

83'▲C. Venos←▼D. Aserov

84'▲C. Zaunbrecher←▼L. Lahi

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

EstradaKandriZellerBehleVenosZaunbrecherWegmann

Manager: N. Elgert

63'▲O. Turay←▼E. Gashi

65'▲M. Wallentowitz←▼Y. Numbisie

75'▲M. Tubić←▼A. Gulasi

83'▲C. Bettoni Katunda←▼M. Khadr

83'▲J. N'Diaye←▼B. Weber

83'▲T. Pfeiffer←▼L. Vozar

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

TurayWallentowitzTubićKatundaN'DiayePfeifferBodon

Match Recap: Meerbusch U19 vs Schalke 04 U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Meerbusch U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 7, 2024.

Goals: J. Zgorecki (6'), Z. Amoussou-Tchibara (24'), M. Ayhan (28'), J. Ilunga (57'), M. Wallentowitz (67'), M. Tubić (80').

The match was played at Rasenplatz Lank in Meerbusch.

Meerbusch U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Meerbusch U19 vs Schalke 04 U19