Meerbusch U19 1–3 Meppen U19: Result & Stats

Meerbusch U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Meppen U19

D. Aserov 55'

M. Meyering 90+2'

H. Wittrock 39' (pen), 9'

10/26/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1932%

×Draw20%

Meppen U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchMeppen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.31

Meerbusch U19

1.88

Meppen U19

2.31

Meppen U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 51 away

1.21

creates per match

1.69

2.93

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Meppen U19

1.69

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Meppen U19

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

52%

Meerbusch U19 or Meppen U19

80%

Draw or Meppen U19

68%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

16%

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

85%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

56%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

29%

Meppen U19 1+ goals

90%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

67%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.88

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

32%

level

20%

Meppen U19 scores more

48%

Meppen U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

H. Wittrock

39'

H. WittrockPenalty

46'

J. Asamoah← C. Venos

46'

M. Ume← L. Lahi

51'

N. Gergorec

51'

N. Gergorec

55'

D. Aserov

57'

P. Müller← J. Estrada

67'

B. Klein

67'

B. Klein

69'

J. Dünnebacke← P. Heinle

72'

L. Jürgens← S. Roga

76'

J. Karakis← J. Asamoah

82'

K. Mischtal← D. Aserov

82'

Y. Zeller← J. Gaudian

90'

M. Gerritzen← C. Decker

90+2'

M. Meyering

Meerbusch

Meppen

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Aserov

Gergorec

Manager: D. Granata

46'▲J. Asamoah←▼C. Venos

46'▲M. Ume←▼L. Lahi

57'▲P. Müller←▼J. Estrada

76'▲J. Karakis←▼J. Asamoah

82'▲K. Mischtal←▼D. Aserov

82'▲Y. Zeller←▼J. Gaudian

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

AsamoahUmeMüllerKarakisMischtalZellerVarzandeh

Manager: C. Stammermann

69'▲J. Dünnebacke←▼P. Heinle

72'▲L. Jürgens←▼S. Roga

90'▲M. Gerritzen←▼C. Decker

Meppen U19 substitutes

DünnebackeJürgensGerritzenCotorWalkerMeyer

U19 Bundesliga: Meerbusch U19 1–3 Meppen U19

Meppen U19 beat Meerbusch U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 26, 2024.

Goals: H. Wittrock (9', 39' pen), D. Aserov (55'), M. Meyering (90+2').

The match was played at Rasenplatz Lank in Meerbusch.

Meerbusch U19 vs Meppen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Meerbusch U19 1–3 Meppen U19