Meerbusch U19 0–4 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Meerbusch U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

D. Mossi-Sezene 79'

F. Breuer 77' (OG)

L. Çalışkan 60'

A. Slimani 48'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1921%

×Draw20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.31

Meerbusch U19

1.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.31

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

1.21

creates per match

1.68

2.93

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

41%

Meerbusch U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

80%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

79%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

74%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

38%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

15%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

90%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

21%

level

20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

59%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Gaudian← K. Mischtal

48'

A. Slimani

60'

L. Çalışkan

69'

C. Venos← V. Habarov

69'

C. Zaunbrecher← D. Aserov

69'

Y. El Kandri← S. Savicevic

69'

Y. Zeller← J. Asamoah

71'

A. El-Chaar← A. Pesa

71'

N. Egouli← L. Mentzel

76'

T. Behle← L. Lahi

77'

F. BreuerOwn goal

78'

T. Malykh← M. Len

78'

S. Cankirli← N. Nikolaou

79'

D. Mossi-Sezene

81'

M. Kurze← D. Mossi-Sezene

81'

M. Özdemir← S. Vũ

Meerbusch

Fortuna

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Manager: D. Granata

46'▲J. Gaudian←▼K. Mischtal

69'▲C. Venos←▼V. Habarov

69'▲C. Zaunbrecher←▼D. Aserov

69'▲Y. El Kandri←▼S. Savicevic

69'▲Y. Zeller←▼J. Asamoah

76'▲T. Behle←▼L. Lahi

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

GaudianVenosZaunbrecherKandriZellerBehleWegmann

Manager: E. Vural

71'▲A. El-Chaar←▼A. Pesa

71'▲N. Egouli←▼L. Mentzel

78'▲T. Malykh←▼M. Len

78'▲S. Cankirli←▼N. Nikolaou

81'▲M. Kurze←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

81'▲M. Özdemir←▼S. Vũ

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

El-ChaarEgouliMalykhCankirliKurzeÖzdemirLangenbruch