Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3–2 Meerbusch U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Meerbusch U19

S. Cankirli 90+4'

L. Çalışkan 55'

A. Slimani 24'

Y. Zeller 69'

D. Aserov 62'

8/24/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 5Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1953%

×Draw21%

Meerbusch U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.34

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.04

Meerbusch U19

1.34

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 14 away

1.78

creates per match

1.14

1.54

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.78

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

75%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Meerbusch U19

79%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

47%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

31%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

60%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

33%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

74%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

39%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.78 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

25%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Slimani

28'

D. Aserov← D. Gyamfi

46'

K. Mischtal← C. Venos

46'

Y. Zeller← J. Estrada

55'

L. Çalışkan

62'

A. El-Chaar← D. Mossi-Sezene

62'

A. Pesa← L. Mentzel

62'

T. Igwesi← N. Nikolaou

62'

D. Aserov

64'

J. Asamoah← S. Savicevic

69'

Y. Zeller

78'

C. Zaunbrecher← F. Breuer

84'

S. Cankirli← K. Affo

90+3'

M. Ume

90+4'

S. Cankirli

Fortuna

Meerbusch

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Vural

62'▲A. El-Chaar←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

62'▲A. Pesa←▼L. Mentzel

62'▲T. Igwesi←▼N. Nikolaou

84'▲S. Cankirli←▼K. Affo

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

El-ChaarPesaIgwesiCankirliEgouliSevinmezMeurer

Manager: D. Granata

28'▲D. Aserov←▼D. Gyamfi

46'▲K. Mischtal←▼C. Venos

46'▲Y. Zeller←▼J. Estrada

64'▲J. Asamoah←▼S. Savicevic

78'▲C. Zaunbrecher←▼F. Breuer

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

AserovMischtalZellerAsamoahZaunbrecherVarzandehKarakis