Meerbusch U19 0–3 Borussia Dortmund U19

Meerbusch U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Borussia Dortmund U19

A. Niziołek 88'

D. Dzonga 45', 8'

8/18/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1914%

×Draw16%

Borussia Dortmund U1970%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.78

Meerbusch U19

1.19

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.78

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

1.21

creates per match

2.62

2.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.62

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

30%

Meerbusch U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

84%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

86%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

5%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

70%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

33%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

12%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

94%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

76%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.62 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

14%

level

16%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

70%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Dzonga

45'

D. Dzonga

46'

D. Aserov← E. Acikgöz

51'

54'

M. Kaba← S. Inacio

69'

L. Lahi← C. Venos

69'

P. Müller← J. Ilunga

73'

A. Niziołek← T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta

83'

C. Zaunbrecher← D. Gyamfi

83'

J. Asamoah← S. Savicevic

83'

A. Mahjoubi← T. Etcibasi

83'

J. Burstedde← Ousmane Diallo

88'

A. Niziołek

Meerbusch

Borussia

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Granata

46'▲D. Aserov←▼E. Acikgöz

69'▲L. Lahi←▼C. Venos

69'▲P. Müller←▼J. Ilunga

83'▲C. Zaunbrecher←▼D. Gyamfi

83'▲J. Asamoah←▼S. Savicevic

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

AserovLahiMüllerZaunbrecherAsamoahVarzandehKandri

Manager: M. Tullberg

54'▲M. Kaba←▼S. Inacio

73'▲A. Niziołek←▼T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta

83'▲A. Mahjoubi←▼T. Etcibasi

83'▲J. Burstedde←▼Ousmane Diallo

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

KabaNiziołekMahjoubiBursteddeHeldRahmannDegener