Borussia Dortmund U19 3–0 Meerbusch U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Meerbusch U19

J. Feddersen 78'

M. Albert 32', 20'

11/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1971%

×Draw16%

Meerbusch U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia Dortmund U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.03

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.65

Meerbusch U19

1.03

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 157% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 14 away

3.00

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

3.00

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19

0.92

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw

87%

Borussia Dortmund U19 or Meerbusch U19

84%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

29%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

50%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

93%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

74%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

48%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

64%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

28%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.92 · 71 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 3.00 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.65

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

71%

level

16%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

13%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Albert

23'

O. Błaszczyk← W. Rashidi

32'

M. Albert

46'

A. Niziołek← P. Kegni

46'

J. Hoy← Ousmane Diallo

46'

T. Etcibasi← T. Degener

56'

J. Karakis← J. Asamoah

56'

S. Savicevic← J. Estrada

63'

L. Fahrenhorst← M. Albert

63'

Y. Zeller← V. Habarov

72'

C. Zaunbrecher← J. Gaudian

78'

J. Feddersen

84'

J. Froese← R. Lisewski

Borussia

Meerbusch

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Albert

▼

Diallo

Manager: M. Tullberg

23'▲O. Błaszczyk←▼W. Rashidi

46'▲A. Niziołek←▼P. Kegni

46'▲J. Hoy←▼Ousmane Diallo

46'▲T. Etcibasi←▼T. Degener

63'▲L. Fahrenhorst←▼M. Albert

84'▲J. Froese←▼R. Lisewski

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

BłaszczykNiziołekHoyEtcibasiFahrenhorstFroese

Manager: D. Granata

56'▲J. Karakis←▼J. Asamoah

56'▲S. Savicevic←▼J. Estrada

63'▲Y. Zeller←▼V. Habarov

72'▲C. Zaunbrecher←▼J. Gaudian

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

KarakisSavicevicZellerZaunbrecherVarzandehBehleKandri

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Meerbusch U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat Meerbusch U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Albert (20', 32'), J. Feddersen (78').

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Meerbusch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Meerbusch U19