Meerbusch U19 0–2 Alemannia Aachen U19

Meerbusch U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alemannia Aachen U19

J. Pollmann 77'

Arian Amyn 30'

3/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1936%

×Draw21%

Alemannia Aachen U1944%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchAlemannia Aachen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.08

Meerbusch U19

1.87

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.08

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.21

creates per match

1.23

2.93

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.23

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Alemannia Aachen U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Alemannia Aachen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

56%

Meerbusch U19 or Alemannia Aachen U19

79%

Draw or Alemannia Aachen U19

64%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

18%

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

85%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

56%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

29%

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

87%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

61%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Alemannia Aachen U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.87

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.23 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

44%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Arian Amyn

55'

P. Müller← Y. Zeller

55'

V. Habarov← T. Behle

59'

L. Rashica← D. Franzen

73'

J. Karakis← C. Venos

73'

K. Mischtal← J. Asamoah

77'

J. Pollmann

79'

F. Breuer← M. Ume

79'

T. Kogel← Arian Amyn

79'

Y. Selim← R. Edun

90+2'

F. Türkmen← L. Braun

90+2'

M. Fork← S. Gösgens

90+2'

S. Chekrouni← S. Sarar

Meerbusch

Alemannia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Roch

55'▲P. Müller←▼Y. Zeller

55'▲V. Habarov←▼T. Behle

73'▲J. Karakis←▼C. Venos

73'▲K. Mischtal←▼J. Asamoah

79'▲F. Breuer←▼M. Ume

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

MüllerHabarovKarakisMischtalBreuerVarzandehÖzel

Manager: C. Wissing

59'▲L. Rashica←▼D. Franzen

79'▲T. Kogel←▼Arian Amyn

79'▲Y. Selim←▼R. Edun

90+2'▲F. Türkmen←▼L. Braun

90+2'▲M. Fork←▼S. Gösgens

90+2'▲S. Chekrouni←▼S. Sarar

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

RashicaKogelSelimTürkmenForkChekrouniCekic