Alemannia Aachen U19 1–0 Meerbusch U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Meerbusch U19

L. Braun 87'

3/29/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 8Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1942%

×Draw23%

Meerbusch U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.56

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.71

Meerbusch U19

1.56

Alemannia Aachen U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

1.12

creates per match

1.14

1.98

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

65%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or Meerbusch U19

77%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

58%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

82%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

51%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

24%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

79%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

46%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

35%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Ume← K. Mischtal

69'

D. Franzen← A. Eglenovic

69'

L. Rashica← S. Sarar

73'

J. Karakis← C. Venos

78'

T. Kpegouni← Arian Amyn

78'

D. Gyamfi← J. Asamoah

78'

T. Behle← V. Habarov

86'

Y. Zeller← J. Schlotter

87'

L. Braun

90'

M. Fork← J. Pollmann

Alemannia

Meerbusch

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Wissing

69'▲D. Franzen←▼A. Eglenovic

69'▲L. Rashica←▼S. Sarar

78'▲T. Kpegouni←▼Arian Amyn

90'▲M. Fork←▼J. Pollmann

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

FranzenRashicaKpegouniForkTürkmenSchmidtChekrouni

Manager: M. Roch

46'▲M. Ume←▼K. Mischtal

73'▲J. Karakis←▼C. Venos

78'▲D. Gyamfi←▼J. Asamoah

78'▲T. Behle←▼V. Habarov

86'▲Y. Zeller←▼J. Schlotter

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

UmeKarakisGyamfiBehleZellerGrabek

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Meerbusch U19

Alemannia Aachen U19 beat Meerbusch U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 29, 2025.

Goals: L. Braun (87').

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Aachen in Aachen.

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Meerbusch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alemannia Aachen U19 vs Meerbusch U19