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Medyk Konin W vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
FT
0 – 1
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
3/16/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 14Stadion Piłkarski MOSiR im. Mariana Paska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Medyk Konin W37%
×Draw22%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medyk Konin W
1.80
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Medyk Konin W
1.64
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.13

allows per match

Medyk Konin W
2.64
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.97

finishing

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par
Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medyk Konin W ↓

Akademia Piłkarska LG W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Medyk Konin W or draw
59%
Medyk Konin W or Akademia Piłkarska LG W
78%
Draw or Akademia Piłkarska LG W
63%

Winning margin

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
19%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
83%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
54%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
27%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
85%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
56%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
48%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medyk Konin W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medyk Konin W attack 1.64 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.13 + Medyk Konin W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Medyk Konin W scores more
37%
level
22%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
41%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akademia Piłkarska LG W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Medyk Konin W 0–1 Akademia Piłkarska LG W

Akademia Piłkarska LG W beat Medyk Konin W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Piłkarski MOSiR im. Mariana Paska in Konin.