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Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Medyk Konin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
FT
3 – 0
Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
9/2/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W65%
×Draw19%
Medyk Konin W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
2.21
Medyk Konin W
0.96

Akademia Piłkarska LG W creates 130% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.33
Medyk Konin W
0.55

allows per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.36
Medyk Konin W
3.09

finishing

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par
Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademia Piłkarska LG W ↓

Medyk Konin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akademia Piłkarska LG W or draw
85%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W or Medyk Konin W
81%
Draw or Medyk Konin W
35%

Winning margin

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
42%
Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
89%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
65%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
38%
Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
62%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
25%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
81%
Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.33 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.21

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
65%
level
19%
Medyk Konin W scores more
15%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Akademia Piłkarska LG W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3–0 Medyk Konin W

Akademia Piłkarska LG W beat Medyk Konin W 3-0 in Ekstraliga Women on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Gdańsk.