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Medjimurje Cakovec vs Marsonia — Second NL 2022

Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marsonia
Marsonia
5/20/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 28Stadion SRC Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec31%
×Draw23%
Marsonia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.42
Marsonia
1.75

Marsonia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
0.47
Marsonia
1.36

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
2.13
Marsonia
2.36

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par
Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

Marsonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw
55%
Medjimurje Cakovec or Marsonia
77%
Draw or Marsonia
69%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
14%
Marsonia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
76%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
41%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
17%
Marsonia 1+ goals
83%
Marsonia 2+ goals
52%
Marsonia 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
41%
Marsonia (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.47 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
31%
level
23%
Marsonia scores more
45%

Marsonia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Medjimurje Cakovec 0–1 Marsonia

Marsonia beat Medjimurje Cakovec 1-0 in Second NL on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SRC Mladost in Čakovec.