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Marsonia vs Medjimurje Cakovec — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
S. Mahmutovic 57'
M. Haraci 48'
J. Kuqi 29', 24'
11/12/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 13ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marsonia55%
×Draw21%
Medjimurje Cakovec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
2.13
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.34

Marsonia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.00

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Medjimurje Cakovec
2.67

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
76%
Marsonia or Medjimurje Cakovec
79%
Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec
45%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
33%
Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
88%
Marsonia 2+ goals
63%
Marsonia 3+ goals
35%
Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
74%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
39%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
70%
Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.00 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Marsonia scores more
55%
level
21%
Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
24%

Marsonia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
J. Kuqi
29'
J. Kuqi
48'
M. Haraci
57'
S. Mahmutovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Marsonia 1–3 Medjimurje Cakovec

Medjimurje Cakovec beat Marsonia 3-1 in Second NL on November 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Kuqi (24', 29'), M. Haraci (48'), S. Mahmutovic (57').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.