Medjimurje Cakovec 0–1 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

Medjimurje Cakovec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jadran Poreč

I. Macan 90+3'

3/18/2023

Second NL · Round 19Stadion SRC Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec39%

×Draw24%

Jadran Poreč37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Medjimurje CakovecExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.56

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.60

Jadran Poreč

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

0.47

creates per match

1.00

2.13

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.47

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec

2.13

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw

63%

Medjimurje Cakovec or Jadran Poreč

76%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

61%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

19%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

80%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

47%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

22%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

79%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

46%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

51%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 0.47, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.47 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

39%

level

24%

Jadran Poreč scores more

37%

Medjimurje Cakovec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Medjimurje Cakovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'

I. Macan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff