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Jadran Poreč vs Medjimurje Cakovec — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
6 – 0
Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
9/10/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 4Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jadran Poreč56%
×Draw21%
Medjimurje Cakovec23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
2.08
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.28

Jadran Poreč creates 63% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.00

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Medjimurje Cakovec
2.67

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
77%
Jadran Poreč or Medjimurje Cakovec
79%
Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec
44%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
33%
Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
87%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
61%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
34%
Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
72%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
37%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
71%
Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.00 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
56%
level
21%
Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
23%

Jadran Poreč at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran Poreč 6–0 Medjimurje Cakovec

Jadran Poreč beat Medjimurje Cakovec 6-0 in Second NL on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.