Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Medjimurje Cakovec vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
10/16/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 10Stadion SRC Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec39%
×Draw25%
Inter Zapresic35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.43
Inter Zapresic
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 32 away

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.52
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.52
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw
65%
Medjimurje Cakovec or Inter Zapresic
75%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
61%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
18%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
76%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
42%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
17%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
74%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
39%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
52%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.52 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
39%
level
25%
Inter Zapresic scores more
35%

Medjimurje Cakovec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Medjimurje Cakovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medjimurje Cakovec vs Inter Zapresic

Medjimurje Cakovec beat Inter Zapresic 3-2 in First NL on October 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SRC Mladost in Čakovec.