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Inter Zapresic vs Medjimurje Cakovec — First NL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
4/21/2021First NLFirst NL · Round 27Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic61%
×Draw22%
Medjimurje Cakovec17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.88
Medjimurje Cakovec
0.87

Inter Zapresic creates 116% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.41
Medjimurje Cakovec
0.90

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
0.84
Medjimurje Cakovec
2.36

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
83%
Inter Zapresic or Medjimurje Cakovec
78%
Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec
39%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
36%
Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
85%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
56%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
29%
Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
58%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
22%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
78%
Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.90 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
61%
level
22%
Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
17%

Inter Zapresic at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Inter Zapresic 1–0 Medjimurje Cakovec

Inter Zapresic beat Medjimurje Cakovec 1-0 in First NL on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.