Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Medeama vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
P. Boakye Owusu 90+2'
11/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Medeama67%
×Draw22%
Kotoku Royals11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.75
Kotoku Royals
0.54

Medeama creates 224% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.43
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
89%
Medeama or Kotoku Royals
78%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
33%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
39%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
83%
Medeama 2+ goals
52%
Medeama 3+ goals
25%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
42%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
10%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
86%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.49 · 109 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.43 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Medeama scores more
67%
level
22%
Kotoku Royals scores more
11%

Medeama at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
K. Owusu
46'
S. Boakye← S. Boakye
46'
B. Addo← B. Addo
50'
P. Boakye Owusu← P. Boakye Owusu
51'
R. Nortey← B. Abaidoo
62'
E. Ackahbi← E. Ackahbi
62'
P. Boakye Owusu← P. Boakye Owusu
67'
70'
E. Marfo← E. Marfo
74'
K. Ansu← K. Ansu
85'
87'
S. Klutse← S. Klutse
90+1'
B. Addo
90+2'
90+2'
P. Boakye Owusu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Kotoku Royals

Medeama beat Kotoku Royals 1-0 in Premier League on November 20, 2022.

Goals: P. Boakye Owusu (90+2').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.