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Kotoku Royals vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Medeama
Medeama
F. A. Kumi 90+1'
J. Sowah 22'
4/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals43%
×Draw27%
Medeama30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.33
Medeama
1.07

Kotoku Royals creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
70%
Kotoku Royals or Medeama
73%
Draw or Medeama
57%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
20%
Medeama wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
74%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
38%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
15%
Medeama 1+ goals
66%
Medeama 2+ goals
29%
Medeama 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
59%
Medeama (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Medeama attack 0.85 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
43%
level
27%
Medeama scores more
30%

Kotoku Royals at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
J. Sowah
81'
90+1'
F. A. Kumi
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotoku Royals vs Medeama

Kotoku Royals and Medeama drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Sowah (22'), F. A. Kumi (90+1').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.