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Medeama vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
King Faisal
King Faisal
J. Agyemang 67'
N. Abdulai 20'
S. Kusi 10'
5/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Medeama61%
×Draw25%
King Faisal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.56
King Faisal
0.60

Medeama creates 160% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 58 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
86%
Medeama or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
39%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
33%
King Faisal wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
79%
Medeama 2+ goals
46%
Medeama 3+ goals
21%
King Faisal 1+ goals
45%
King Faisal 2+ goals
12%
King Faisal 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
81%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Medeama scores more
61%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
14%

Medeama at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Kusi
20'
N. Abdulai
21'
N. Ebla
27'
B. Bature
52'
J. Opoku← J. Opoku
58'
J. Agyemang← J. Agyemang
67'
J. Agyemang
75'
S. Boakye← S. Boakye
75'
G. Asiamah← G. Asiamah
87'
J. Sowah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs King Faisal

Medeama beat King Faisal 2-1 in Premier League on May 26, 2023.

Goals: S. Kusi (10'), N. Abdulai (20'), J. Agyemang (67').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.