Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

King Faisal vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Medeama
Medeama
J. Gordon 58'
A. Latif 14'
K. Donsu 48'
V. Atingah 27' (pen)
N. Abdulai 23'
2/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

King Faisal43%
×Draw30%
Medeama27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.19
Medeama
0.89

King Faisal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 112 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.18
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

King Faisal
0.92
Medeama
1.19

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
73%
King Faisal or Medeama
70%
Draw or Medeama
57%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
19%
Medeama wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
70%
King Faisal 2+ goals
33%
King Faisal 3+ goals
12%
Medeama 1+ goals
59%
Medeama 2+ goals
22%
Medeama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
61%
Medeama (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Medeama attack 0.85 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

King Faisal scores more
43%
level
30%
Medeama scores more
27%

King Faisal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Latif
23'
N. Abdulai
27'
V. AtingahPenalty
34'
45'
48'
K. Donsu
53'
G. Osei← G. Osei
58'
J. Gordon
70'
J. Gordon
82'
P. Rockson← P. Rockson
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Medeama

Medeama beat King Faisal 3-2 in Premier League on February 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Latif (14'), N. Abdulai (23'), V. Atingah (27' pen), K. Donsu (48'), J. Gordon (58').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.