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Medeama vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
2 – 1
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
A. Mohammed 64', 51'
S. Nafui 70'
1/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Medeama59%
×Draw26%
Inter Allies14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.48
Inter Allies
0.58

Medeama creates 155% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 25 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Inter Allies
0.68

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Inter Allies
1.52

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
86%
Medeama or Inter Allies
74%
Draw or Inter Allies
41%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
31%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
77%
Medeama 2+ goals
43%
Medeama 3+ goals
19%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
44%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
12%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
80%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Inter Allies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Inter Allies attack 0.68 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Medeama scores more
59%
level
26%
Inter Allies scores more
14%

Medeama at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
R. Lamptey
51'
A. Mohammed
62'
63'
S. Taufiq← S. Taufiq
64'
A. Mohammed
70'
S. Nafui
71'
E. Ackahbi← E. Ackahbi
75'
I. Mensah← I. Mensah
77'
M. Gyamerah← M. Gyamerah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Inter Allies

Medeama beat Inter Allies 2-1 in Premier League on January 24, 2021.

Goals: A. Mohammed (51', 64'), S. Nafui (70').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.