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Medeama vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
4/14/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Medeama62%
×Draw25%
Inter Allies13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.54
Inter Allies
0.55

Medeama creates 180% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 29 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.43
Inter Allies
0.62

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Inter Allies
1.66

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
87%
Medeama or Inter Allies
75%
Draw or Inter Allies
38%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
33%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
79%
Medeama 2+ goals
45%
Medeama 3+ goals
20%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
42%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
11%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
82%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.49 · 109 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.43 + Inter Allies defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Inter Allies attack 0.62 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Medeama scores more
62%
level
25%
Inter Allies scores more
13%

Medeama at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Medeama 1–0 Inter Allies

Medeama beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.