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Medeama vs Ashanti Gold — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 0
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
P. Agyemang 90+8' (pen)
5/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Medeama55%
×Draw28%
Ashanti Gold17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.40
Ashanti Gold
0.65

Medeama creates 115% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 42 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Ashanti Gold
0.81

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Ashanti Gold
1.36

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
83%
Medeama or Ashanti Gold
72%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
45%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
28%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
75%
Medeama 2+ goals
41%
Medeama 3+ goals
17%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
48%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
14%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
76%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ashanti Gold attack 0.81 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Medeama scores more
55%
level
28%
Ashanti Gold scores more
17%

Medeama at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
41'
47'
66'
80'
90+2'
90+8'
P. AgyemangPenalty
90+14'
90+14'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Ashanti Gold

Medeama beat Ashanti Gold 1-0 in Premier League on May 23, 2021.

Goals: P. Agyemang (90+8' pen).

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.