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Ashanti Gold vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
0 – 0
Medeama
Medeama
1/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ashanti Gold55%
×Draw26%
Medeama18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.50
Medeama
0.74

Ashanti Gold creates 103% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.80
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.63
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
82%
Ashanti Gold or Medeama
74%
Draw or Medeama
45%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
29%
Medeama wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
78%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
44%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
19%
Medeama 1+ goals
52%
Medeama 2+ goals
17%
Medeama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
75%
Medeama (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.63 · 41 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.80 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Medeama attack 0.85 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
55%
level
26%
Medeama scores more
18%

Ashanti Gold at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
D. Agyin
71'
E. Owusu← E. Owusu
74'
A. Mohammed
79'
G. Nyarko← G. Nyarko
88'
S. Appiah
89'
W. Fuseini← W. Fuseini
90+1'
G. K. Asamoah← G. K. Asamoah
90+8'
H. Kwofie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 0–0 Medeama

Ashanti Gold and Medeama drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.