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Medeama vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
1/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16TNA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Medeama48%
×Draw31%
Asante Kotoko21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.16
Asante Kotoko
0.67

Medeama creates 73% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
79%
Medeama or Asante Kotoko
69%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
52%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
21%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
69%
Medeama 2+ goals
32%
Medeama 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
49%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
15%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
69%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Medeama scores more
48%
level
31%
Asante Kotoko scores more
21%

Medeama at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Medeama 1–1 Asante Kotoko

Medeama and Asante Kotoko drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at TNA Park in Tarkwa.