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Asante Kotoko vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Medeama
Medeama
6/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Asante Kotoko50%
×Draw28%
Medeama21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.33
Medeama
0.75

Asante Kotoko creates 77% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
79%
Asante Kotoko or Medeama
72%
Draw or Medeama
50%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
24%
Medeama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
74%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
38%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
15%
Medeama 1+ goals
53%
Medeama 2+ goals
17%
Medeama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
71%
Medeama (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Medeama attack 0.85 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
50%
level
28%
Medeama scores more
21%

Asante Kotoko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 3–2 Medeama

Asante Kotoko beat Medeama 3-2 in Premier League on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.