Mecklenburg Schwerin 1–4 Hansa Rostock II

Mecklenburg Schwerin

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Hansa Rostock II

3/31/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 26Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin23%

×Draw20%

Hansa Rostock II57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mecklenburg SchwerinExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.29

Mecklenburg Schwerin

1.42

Hansa Rostock II

2.29

Hansa Rostock II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

1.21

creates per match

2.39

2.18

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin

1.21

Hansa Rostock II

2.39

allows per match

Mecklenburg Schwerin

2.18

Hansa Rostock II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mecklenburg Schwerin ↓

Hansa Rostock II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Mecklenburg Schwerin or draw

43%

Mecklenburg Schwerin or Hansa Rostock II

80%

Draw or Hansa Rostock II

77%

Winning margin

Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+

10%

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals

76%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals

41%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals

17%

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals

90%

Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals

66%

Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)

29%

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mecklenburg Schwerin at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

Hansa Rostock II away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.21 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.39 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more

23%

level

20%

Hansa Rostock II scores more

57%

Hansa Rostock II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff