Hansa Rostock II 3–0 Mecklenburg Schwerin

Hansa Rostock II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mecklenburg Schwerin

10/16/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 9Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hansa Rostock II65%

×Draw18%

Mecklenburg Schwerin17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock IIExpected goals in this matchMecklenburg Schwerin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.27

Hansa Rostock II

2.59

Mecklenburg Schwerin

1.27

Hansa Rostock II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

2.76

creates per match

1.39

1.16

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Hansa Rostock II

2.76

Mecklenburg Schwerin

1.39

allows per match

Hansa Rostock II

1.16

Mecklenburg Schwerin

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Mecklenburg Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock II ↓

Mecklenburg Schwerin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock II or draw

83%

Hansa Rostock II or Mecklenburg Schwerin

82%

Draw or Mecklenburg Schwerin

35%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+

44%

Mecklenburg Schwerin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals

92%

Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals

73%

Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals

47%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 1+ goals

72%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 2+ goals

36%

Mecklenburg Schwerin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)

79%

Mecklenburg Schwerin (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock II at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Mecklenburg Schwerin away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.76 + Mecklenburg Schwerin defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.59

Mecklenburg Schwerin attack 1.39 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hansa Rostock II scores more

65%

level

18%

Mecklenburg Schwerin scores more

17%

Hansa Rostock II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff