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Mechtersheim vs Hertha Wiesbach — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
9/24/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mechtersheim47%
×Draw21%
Hertha Wiesbach32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
2.10
Hertha Wiesbach
1.73

Mechtersheim creates 21% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.90
Hertha Wiesbach
1.95

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.51
Hertha Wiesbach
2.31

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
68%
Mechtersheim or Hertha Wiesbach
79%
Draw or Hertha Wiesbach
53%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
27%
Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
88%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
62%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
35%
Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
82%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
52%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
59%
Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.90 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.10

Hertha Wiesbach attack 1.95 + Mechtersheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
47%
level
21%
Hertha Wiesbach scores more
32%

Mechtersheim at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mechtersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Mechtersheim 3–0 Hertha Wiesbach

Mechtersheim beat Hertha Wiesbach 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.