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Hertha Wiesbach vs Mechtersheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
FT
3 – 2
Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
9/11/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 6ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach49%
×Draw21%
Mechtersheim30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
2.10
Mechtersheim
1.60

Hertha Wiesbach creates 31% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 62 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
2.28
Mechtersheim
1.39

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.81
Mechtersheim
1.92

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Mechtersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
70%
Hertha Wiesbach or Mechtersheim
79%
Draw or Mechtersheim
51%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
29%
Mechtersheim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
88%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
62%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
35%
Mechtersheim 1+ goals
80%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
47%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
62%
Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + Mechtersheim defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mechtersheim attack 1.39 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
49%
level
21%
Mechtersheim scores more
30%

Hertha Wiesbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Wiesbach vs Mechtersheim

Hertha Wiesbach beat Mechtersheim 3-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn in Eppelborn.