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Mechtersheim vs Gonsenheim — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
5/20/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 9Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mechtersheim35%
×Draw24%
Gonsenheim41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
1.42
Gonsenheim
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.00
Gonsenheim
1.50

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.60
Gonsenheim
1.83

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Gonsenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
59%
Mechtersheim or Gonsenheim
76%
Draw or Gonsenheim
65%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
16%
Gonsenheim wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
76%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
41%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
17%
Gonsenheim 1+ goals
79%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
46%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
46%
Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Gonsenheim away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.00 + Gonsenheim defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gonsenheim attack 1.50 + Mechtersheim defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
35%
level
24%
Gonsenheim scores more
41%

Gonsenheim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mechtersheim vs Gonsenheim

Mechtersheim and Gonsenheim drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.