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Gonsenheim vs Mechtersheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
10/14/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Gonsenheim55%
×Draw21%
Mechtersheim24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.10
Mechtersheim
1.33

Gonsenheim creates 58% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 62 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Mechtersheim
1.39

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Mechtersheim
1.92

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Mechtersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
76%
Gonsenheim or Mechtersheim
79%
Draw or Mechtersheim
45%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
33%
Mechtersheim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
88%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
62%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
35%
Mechtersheim 1+ goals
74%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
38%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
70%
Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Mechtersheim defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mechtersheim attack 1.39 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
55%
level
21%
Mechtersheim scores more
24%

Gonsenheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Gonsenheim 1–0 Mechtersheim

Gonsenheim beat Mechtersheim 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.