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Mebrat Hayl vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
M. Teshome 44'
A. Demissie 30'
H. Ayele 22'
10/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mebrat Hayl45%
×Draw27%
Legetafo Legedadi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mebrat Hayl
1.41
Legetafo Legedadi
1.06

Mebrat Hayl creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mebrat Hayl
0.82
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Mebrat Hayl
0.98
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Mebrat Hayl+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mebrat Hayl ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mebrat Hayl or draw
72%
Mebrat Hayl or Legetafo Legedadi
73%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
55%

Winning margin

Mebrat Hayl wins by 2+
22%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mebrat Hayl 1+ goals
76%
Mebrat Hayl 2+ goals
41%
Mebrat Hayl 3+ goals
17%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
65%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
29%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mebrat Hayl (draw refunded)
61%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mebrat Hayl at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mebrat Hayl attack 0.82 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Mebrat Hayl defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mebrat Hayl scores more
45%
level
27%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
28%

Mebrat Hayl at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mebrat Hayl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
H. Ayele
26'
M. Tola
30'
A. Demissie
42'
A. Tesfaye
44'
M. Teshome
46'
M. Abera← M. Abera
46'
T. Aniley← T. Aniley
46'
46'
64'
C. Damtew
80'
81'
H. Ayele
86'
A. Shimelis← A. Shimelis
86'
A. Habtamu← A. Habtamu
90+1'
A. Yilak← A. Yilak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mebrat Hayl 3–0 Legetafo Legedadi

Mebrat Hayl beat Legetafo Legedadi 3-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2022.

Goals: H. Ayele (22'), A. Demissie (30'), M. Teshome (44').

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.