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Legetafo Legedadi vs Mebrat Hayl — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl
4/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi24%
×Draw27%
Mebrat Hayl49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
0.93
Mebrat Hayl
1.46

Mebrat Hayl creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 52 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Mebrat Hayl
0.73

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Mebrat Hayl
0.98

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Mebrat Hayl+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Mebrat Hayl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
51%
Legetafo Legedadi or Mebrat Hayl
73%
Draw or Mebrat Hayl
76%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
8%
Mebrat Hayl wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
61%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
24%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
7%
Mebrat Hayl 1+ goals
77%
Mebrat Hayl 2+ goals
43%
Mebrat Hayl 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
33%
Mebrat Hayl (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Mebrat Hayl away — creates 0.73, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Mebrat Hayl defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Mebrat Hayl attack 0.73 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
24%
level
27%
Mebrat Hayl scores more
49%

Mebrat Hayl at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mebrat Hayl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
S. Tafesse
22'
S. Waleche
22'
N. Solomon
35'
78'
I. Befkadu← I. Befkadu
78'
C. Damtew← C. Damtew

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legetafo Legedadi 0 – 0 Mebrat Hayl

Legetafo Legedadi and Mebrat Hayl drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.