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MCF vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
11/19/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

MCF39%
×Draw28%
Mara Sugar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
1.21
Mara Sugar
1.08

MCF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 52 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

MCF or draw
67%
MCF or Mara Sugar
72%
Draw or Mara Sugar
61%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
17%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
70%
MCF 2+ goals
34%
MCF 3+ goals
12%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
54%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

MCF scores more
39%
level
28%
Mara Sugar scores more
33%

MCF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "MCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MCF 0 – 3 Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar beat MCF 3-0 in Super League on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.